Fortunately, the Pesach (Passover) break has begun today and there will be time to update over the course of the next two and a half weeks. Additionally, there are trips to the Golan Heights, Masada, and the Dead Sea planned, which could and should provide for interesting posts--not to mention Pesach itself.
That stated, I thought I would follow up on the thread from last week regarding the political situation here in Israel. If the unfolding situation between the U.S. and Israel could be described as a brush fire, I would not describe the brush fire as intense in its "heat" as it was last week, but I would certainly describe it as having spread. And there is little sign of it tapering off.
As per last week's update, the announcement of new housing units in the Ramat Shlomo neighborhood of East Jerusalem by the Israeli Interior Minister provided the perfect opportunity for the Obama Administration to trap Prime Minister Netanyahu. The move turned a simple boneheaded mistake on the Israelis' part into a desirable crisis on behalf of the Obama Administration.
And we all know that our leaders don't believe in letting "a good crisis go to waste."
Recent developments and their implications change as rapidly as they appear, which makes for difficulty when attempting to analyze. However, analysis is necessary as the implications are far reaching.
The divide within Israeli society over the "loners" and "groaners" hasn't shown any tangible signs of exacerbating since I last updated the blog. Most Israelis seem to be locked into wait-and-see mode. The intentions of the Obama Administration are being weighed against the actions of the Netanyahu-led coalition.
What will the United States tolerate? What does the U.S. expect of Israel? What will Bibi Netanyahu's decisions reflect? Will the United States interfere in the Israeli government as they did under President Clinton when American Democratic strategists and Democratic donors all but ousted Netanyahu in his first tenure as Prime Minister? What does this all mean with regard to the Iranian threat?
These are some of the things Israelis are thinking about--things that they are nervously anticipating. Fresh developments have put Israel under even further scrutiny.
During a speech to AIPAC (American-Israeli Political Action Conference) two days ago, Netanyahu announced quite bluntly that "Jerusalem is not a settlement. It is our capital." This was a clear slap at the Obama Administration. He received enthusiastic applause for such defiance in the face of a none-too-friendly U.S. President. This is not a surprise considering the equally enthusiastic pro-Israel crowd.
What is somewhat surprising is how bold and savvy this move was. Netanyahu has essentially decided to circumvent the U.S. government and instead make a direct appeal to the sympathy of the American people, who are overwhelmingly in support of Israel. The calculation seems to be that domestic support for Obama is not as strong as it once was and that the American people can bring pressure to bear against their government to support and defend the American-Israel alliance.
Given Netanyahu's American education and his understanding of American society, this could prove to be an interesting tactic that in the long run gives Israel an advantage.
Reports are circulating that the private meeting between Netanyahu and Obama did not go well at all. Here in Israel, the media seems to be portraying the entire conflagration rather tepidly. Neither left or right want to inflame tensions any worse. Both sides of the ideological spectrum understand the danger involved with undermining Netanyahu and assailing Obama. Israel needs America if Iran is to be stopped.
This media approach could certainly change as the entire situation is fluid. And news in Britain and Jordan reflects this fluidity. In what I believe is a bid to energize their domestic voter base prior to the coming elections, the Labor government has expelled Israeli personnel from the Israeli embassy in Great Britain.
Information gleaned following the assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, a Hamas operative responsible for transferring weapons from Iran to Gaza, points to a highly elaborate Mossad effort to disrupt the Iranian regime and their terror proxies. According to the British government, Israeli intelligence agents impersonated British citizens using false passports to pull off the high-profile assassination in Dubai.
And yesterday, the British government used its strongest language yet against Israel, taking even stronger action to expel Israeli embassy staff.
Now Israel is withering a highly publicized confrontation with its two closest and most powerful allies--despite the shared common enemy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. And today, the U.S. announced that it would seek weaker than expected sanctions against Iran over its nuclear weapons program.
Even the moderate regime of Jordan, an Arab nation formally at peace with Israel and a strong U.S. ally in this region, announced courtesy of King Abdullah II that "Israel must decide if it wants conflict or peace."
As I've stated before, words mean things in this region. And the fact that Jordan is entering in the fray suggests that King Abdullah II senses a power shift in the world and the Middle East. He knows he must tread carefully if Iran or Turkey's influence continues to grow in the face of weakened and softer U.S. leadership.
Neither Jordan nor Egypt want to face the wrath of their coreligionists for signing peace treaties with the Zionist state. And this wrath is becoming a greater and greater possibility as the threat against Israel's very existence mounts and the decisiveness of the West to act against Iran continues to wane.
Netanyahu returns to Israel from the U.S. without having secured assurances from the American government, with burgeoning British hostility, growing uncertainty from Islamic moderates, and with renewed confidence from radical Islamists. This recipe is not one for peace.
The words from the prophet Isaiah grow louder and louder every passing day:
"But you, O Israel, my servant, Jacob, whom I have chosen, you descendants of Abraham my friend, I took you from the ends of the earth, from its farthest corners I called you. I said, 'You are my servant'; I have chosen you and have not rejected you.
So do not fear, for I am with you; do not be dismayed, for I am your God. I will strengthen you and help you; I will uphold you with my righteous right hand. All who rage against you will surely be ashamed and disgraced; those who oppose you will be as nothing and perish.
Though you search for your enemies, you will not find them. Those who wage war against you will be as nothing at all. For I am the Lord, your God, who takes hold of your right hand and says to you, Do not fear; I will help you."
-Isaiah 41:8-13
The hour to once again stand with Israel and our Jewish brethren draws near.
3/26 Update: The Times of London is reporting that Prime Minister Netanyahu was humiliated by President Obama during a meeting in the Oval Office a couple days ago.
Netanyahu unveiled a flow chart explaining how the Interior Ministry and housing pronouncements work and explained to Obama how there was absolutely no way that he could have known that such an announcement was coming during Vice-President Biden's visit.
Obama, none too pleased that Bibi was not addressing U.S. demands, then apparently stood up, told Netanyahu that he had a private dinner to attend, and to "let me know if there is anything new." Such a snub is unprecedented. The only thing that even is comparable is Reagan walking away from the negotiating table at Reykjavik when he was dealing with Gorbachev and the Soviets.
The difference between the Soviet Union and Israel should be quite apparent to anyone reading this.
Both Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak then went to the Roosevelt Room to regroup, but eventually opted to leave the White House entirely because they no longer trusted the Americans not to listen in on their discussion or phone calls.
Thus they returned to the Israeli embassy in D.C. and eventually flew back here to Tel Aviv.
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